As is annual tradition, we will be doing our first round pick-ems, I’ll keep it nice and sweet since I am living a busy life and applying to dental school soon!
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Thunder vs #8 Suns
Easiest pick of the entire post-season. The Suns are a great story, but their style of guard heavy offense is the exact team the Thunder are designed to suppress with waves of switchable wings. Shai is easily the best player in this series, and should have no issue making mince meat of his fellow Canadian teammate, Dillon Brooks. Thunder in 4.
#2 Spurs vs #7 Trailblazers
The second easiest pick of the entire post-season. Deni Advija relies on driving to the lane to get his points. The Trailblazers have the worst 3PT% of any team that qualified for the playoffs. What do the Spurs do best on defense? Wemby blocking every shot at the rim. To make matters worse, the Blazers have no big men that can space the floor, so Wemby can easily cheat off his defender to dominate the boards. The only way to beat the Spurs defensive scheme is to hit your open 3s, which the Blazers have not shown an ability to do. Spurs in 4.
#3 Nuggets vs #6 Timberwolves
This will be the third time these two teams face each other in the past 3 post-seasons. The current head to head record is 15-14 favoring the Nuggets. A lot of people are really high on the Nuggets due to their winstreak to end the season, and down on the Wolves due to Edwards injury. I am not one of those folks. The Wolves have been a thorn in the Nuggets side the past 3 years, and may have singlehandedly prevented the Nuggets from repeating as Champs in 2024. The Wolves are a team built to handle Jokic, with their size at the PF and C position. Even if Edwards isn’t 100%, the Wolves can hinder Jokic in ways that the Nuggets cannot hinder Edwards and gang. Either way, I see this series going 7. Wolves in 7.
#4 Lakers vs #5 Rockets
Another polarizing series. Most people have the Lakers down and out due to Luka and Austin being injured. If the series stalls long enough, I believe Austin and Luka will return and can win it for the Lakers. So the real question to me is can LeBron and crew win at least 2 games against this Rockets team without their two-best players. My answer is yes. This may be LeBron’s final post-season. I believe my goat, LeBron, can will the Lakers to one game and the team can win another for the Lakers, stalling enough time for Austin and Luka to return. I understand the Rockets have 5 of the 6 best players in the series, but I believe 41 year old LeBron is still the #1 best player in the series, and that means something. Perhaps this is foolish and wishful thinking, but I believe LeBron has what it takes to turn back the clock and beat the Rockets against all odds. Lakers in 7. Side note: If the Lakers win this series, it would be the third biggest upset by Vegas odds in NBA history.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The Eastern conference is quite a bit easier to predict in my opinion, due to being much more top heavy.
#1 Pistons vs #8 Magic
Another easy series. The Magic have shown to be vulnerable to athletic guards, and Paolo Banchero looks out of sorts. The Magic’s team experiment has failed in part due to injury, but also over expectations. Paolo’s game has not developed in the ways it needed to, meanwhile Cade Cunningham has had an MVP-worthy season, lung-issue nonwithstanding. Even without Cade, the Pistons won games and continued to impress. The Pistons should handle the Magic easily. Pistons in 5.
#2 Celtics vs #7 76ers
My reasoning for this one is quite simple. I think the Celtics are the best team in the East with Tatum healthy. They were second in the East without Tatum, and now with Tatum back they look incredibly dangerous. The 76ers will be without Embiid for atleast the first 2 games. If the 76ers go down 2-0 early (which is highly likely), they will just not have enough in the tank to win 4 of the next 5 to steal the series. Additionally, the 76ers haven’t beaten the Celtics in a playoff series since 1982 when Moses Malone was still a Sixer. For being such a “big rivalry“, its been thoroughly one-sided for the majority of NBA history. I believe Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are enough to get one game, but the Celtics are too good, too deep, and too talented to give anymore games away. Celtics in 5.
#3 Knicks vs #6 Hawks
Knicks should take care of the Hawks handidly. The Knicks have one of the best starting lineups in the game, and a decent bench. Their weakness, as it was last year, is KAT and Brunson on the defensive end. KAT has the size to play defense when he feels like it, so his defensive shares normally rise in the post-season. The player you have to attack is Brunson. Tire him out on the defensive end, and you cut the head off the snake. The Hawks have a deep bench and roster, but their problem is their starters. Dyson Daniels, a key starter, cannot create offense for the life of him. While Daniels may be able to hinder Brunson on the offense (big if, considering Brunson is one of the greatest playoff risers in NBA history statistically), Daniels offers almost nothing on the offensive end allowing Brunson to hide on defense. If you can’t stop Brunson, and can’t punish him easily on the other end, the series is over before it starts. The Celtics last year had trouble hunting Brunson with Tatum and Brown. I have a hard time believing the Hawks will be able to hunt him with CJ McCollum and Jalen Johnson. The Knicks just have too many matchup advantages for the Hawks to get enough edges to win any game. Knicks in 4.
#4 Cavaliers vs #5 Raptors
Contrary to popular belief, I can see this series going long. The Cavaliers employ two of the biggest playoff chokers in NBA history in James Harden and Donovan Mitchell. As a part of the Jazz and the Cavs, Mitchell has blown numerous 3-1 leads, and has lost playoff games where his team lead by 20+ 3 separate times. James Harden’s history is well documented. His Rockets team had the Warriors on the edge and then missed 27 straight 3s in a close-out game 7. 25% of his games Harden averages more turnovers than FG made. As much as we complain about Shai flopping, Harden and Mitchell are two of the biggest floppers in the league, and also below average defenders. The hope is that Mobley and Allen can cover the rim on the back-end, but the point remains that Mitchell and Harden as your backcourt is a massive defensive liability, and prone to choking in the clutch. Cavs still win, but I see it going the full distance. Cavs in 7.