The Seattle Seahawks are approaching a crossroads that could define the next several years of the franchise. Geno Smith, the quarterback who has revived his career in Seattle, is reportedly seeking a contract extension. On paper, that might seem like an easy decision—Smith has been a stabilizing force for the Seahawks, guiding them to playoff contention in back-to-back seasons. But the reality is far murkier, as Smith’s performance has placed the Seahawks in one of the most challenging dilemmas in modern NFL roster construction.
Geno Smith is good. He’s not great, and he’s certainly not elite, but he’s undeniably better than average. Over the past two seasons, Smith has ranked somewhere between the 10th and 16th best quarterbacks in the league—a range that is as much a blessing as it is a curse. In a league where quarterback play is paramount, having a competent, above-average starter like Smith is valuable. But therein lies the problem: How much is that value worth?
The Middle-Class Quarterback Dilemma
NFL quarterbacks are rarely judged in isolation. They’re either the face of the franchise—bona fide superstars who can elevate a team—or placeholders, keeping the seat warm until something better comes along. Geno Smith resides in the nebulous middle ground. He’s too good to be discarded and too inconsistent to be crowned the savior of the franchise. And yet, when it comes to quarterback contracts, the NFL doesn’t price for the middle. You either pay your guy at the top of the market—currently $40+ million per year—or you move on.
Smith’s reported desire for an extension would almost certainly land him in that $40 million per year range, a figure typically reserved for elite quarterbacks who can single-handedly carry their teams. Geno Smith, while solid, is not that guy. His strengths—poise, accuracy, and leadership—are offset by limitations in high-pressure moments and a lack of dynamic playmaking ability. He’s capable of winning games but rarely does he dominate them. He’s better than a placeholder but not good enough to justify strapping the team’s salary cap for years to come.
The Seahawks’ Tough Decision
This is the no-man’s land that the Seahawks now find themselves in. Extending Geno Smith at $40+ million per year would mean committing to a player who is likely good enough to keep Seattle competitive but not good enough to make them true Super Bowl contenders. Worse, it would limit the Seahawks’ ability to build a stronger roster around him. Elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow can justify massive contracts because they elevate the players around them. A quarterback like Smith, who relies more on his supporting cast, can cripple a team’s roster flexibility if he’s taking up a significant chunk of the salary cap.
On the other hand, moving on from Smith is far from risk-free. Drafting and developing a new quarterback is a gamble, with no guarantee of success. The Seahawks have built a roster capable of contending in the short term, and starting over at quarterback could waste the prime years of players like DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker III, and Tariq Woolen. A rookie quarterback might be the answer long-term, but in the short-term, it’s likely a step back.
The Precedent Problem
Recent history has shown how dangerous it is to pay good quarterbacks elite money. Teams like the Vikings (Kirk Cousins) and Raiders (Derek Carr) have been stuck in mediocrity because they committed significant resources to quarterbacks who couldn’t elevate their rosters. Even the Cowboys, with Dak Prescott, have faced criticism for paying a quarterback who consistently falls short of elite status. If the Seahawks choose to pay Geno Smith, they risk joining that group—a team that is perpetually “good,” but never “great.”
The Fork in the Road
The Seahawks will eventually have to make a choice: Do they compete now with Geno Smith on a potentially bloated contract, or do they bite the bullet, move on, and search for a new quarterback? The answer depends on how Seattle views its current roster and long-term goals. If the Seahawks believe they’re on the cusp of contention, they might decide to pay Smith and hope they can build around him despite the financial constraints. If they think their championship window is further away, they might opt to start fresh, drafting a quarterback and building for the future.
Either way, the Seahawks are staring down a decision with no easy answers. Geno Smith has been a revelation for Seattle, defying expectations and stabilizing the quarterback position after Russell Wilson’s departure. But his emergence has created a problem as much as it has solved one. In the NFL, mediocrity is the enemy of progress, and the Seahawks will have to decide whether they’re willing to risk being stuck in the middle—or take a leap of faith in search of something better.