The Seattle Seahawks are approaching a crossroads that could define the next several years of the franchise. Geno Smith, the quarterback who has revived his career in Seattle, is reportedly seeking a contract extension. Smith has been a stabilizing force for the Seahawks, guiding them to playoff contention in back-to-back seasons.
But he’s certainly not elite. He’s just good. Over the past two seasons, Smith has ranked somewhere between the 10th and 16th best quarterbacks in the league, a range that is as much a blessing as it is a curse. In a league where quarterback play is paramount, having a competent, above-average starter like Smith is valuable. But therein lies the problem: How much is that value worth?
Smith’s reported desire for an extension would almost certainly land him in that $40 million per year range, a hefty price for an above average quarterback.
The Seahawks are effectively in no-man’s land. Extending Geno Smith at $40+ million per year would mean committing to a player who is likely good enough to keep Seattle competitive, but not good enough to make them true Super Bowl contenders. Worse, it would limit the Seahawks’ ability to build a stronger roster around him. Elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow can justify massive contracts because they elevate the players around them. A quarterback like Smith, who relies more on his supporting cast, can cripple a team’s roster flexibility if he’s taking up a significant chunk of the salary cap.
On the other hand, moving on from Smith is far from risk-free. Drafting and developing a new quarterback is a gamble, with no guarantee of success. The Seahawks have built a roster capable of contending in the short term, and starting over at quarterback would likely waste the prime years of players like Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III.
Recent history has also shown how dangerous it is to pay good quarterbacks elite money. Teams like the Vikings (Kirk Cousins) and Raiders (Derek Carr) have been stuck in mediocrity because they committed significant resources to quarterbacks who couldn’t elevate their rosters. If the Seahawks choose to pay Geno Smith, they risk joining that group: a team that is perpetually “good,” but never “great.”
If you were to ask me? I think it’s time to move on. Flatly, Geno Smith at $40 million is too rich a price, and I don’t believe he’s good enough to be the starting quarterback for a Superbowl contender.
Geno Smith has been a revelation for Seattle, defying expectations and stabilizing the quarterback position after Russell Wilson’s departure. But his emergence has created a problem as much as it has solved one. In the NFL, mediocrity is the enemy of progress, and the Seahawks will have to decide whether they’re willing to risk being stuck in the middle, or take a leap of faith in search of something better. Either way, this decision is not nearly as simple as both sides of the aisles make it sound.