While most of my picks were accurate (slight difference in game score), there are two series I significantly miscalculated:
Lakers over Wolves in 6, and Bucks over Pacers in 7.
I had originally picked the Lakers because I believed in Luka and LeBron, and it seems like my faith in them was misguided. Games 3, 4, and 5 were all in the balance heading into the fourth, a position that I thought would favor the team that had two of the highest IQ players ever in Luka and LeBron. Instead, Luka and LeBron laid eggs in each of those 3 games, and Anthony Edwards took over the 4th. That was entirely unexpected, especially considering how Luka dominated the Wolves last year. While this is not enough for me to consider Ant a better player than Luka, we are getting more evidence that Ant may have what it takes to be the best player on a championship winning team. This was a serious miscalculation by me. Bucks over Pacers follows a similar thread. I trusted to much in Giannis, and did not value the team enough. The Pacers were clearly the better team, despite Giannis being heads and shoulders above everyone in that series.
Alright, lets head into the round 2 pick’ems.
West Semis
#1 Thunder vs #4 Nuggets
While the Nuggets have the best player, the Thunder are by far the better and deeper team. My logic here is simple. If the Clippers were able to push the Nuggets to 7, I have a hard time believing the Thunder won’t be able to handle the Nuggets. It took a herculean effort by Jokic to get them to the second round. I believe he meets his match here, with SGA exposing the Nuggets weak half-court defense, showing why he deserved MVP over Jokic. Thunder in 6.
#6 Timberwolves vs #7 Warriors
Were the Timberwolves this good, or were the Lakers that bad? The Wolves in their last 20, have been one of the highest rated Offensive and Defensive teams, but it’s also hard to overlook the Lakers bad coaching decisions and limited size that cost them multiple games. The Wolves had multiple poor shooting nights against the Lakers, yet still were able to win due to Luka, LeBron, and Austin Reeves going missing in the fourth. It’s hard to believe that the Warriors won’t also be able to give the Timberwolves fits, especially when considering the Warriors have a substantially better defense. Despite the Wolves looking good against the Lakers, I feel like it was much more about the Lakers letting the ball go, rather than the Wolves showing something special (they missed the most 3s in franchise history and still won, because the Lakers ran entirely out of gas). Warriors in 6.
East Semis
#1 Cavaliers vs #4 Pacers
The east feels easier to me. While the Pacers looked good, Giannis still dominated them. It also took a herculean effort by the Pacers to comeback and beat the Bucs in one of those games, only the 2nd time in NBA history a team came back down 7 with 1 minute left. I don’t think the Cavs will let that happen to them, and their team entire roster is loaded as well. Hard to see the Pacers getting any angles against the stout defense the Cavs have, and their motion heavy offense. The only way I see this series being competitive is if the Cavaliers lose key players. Cavs in 5.
#2 Celtics vs #3 Knicks
This one also feels easy. The Knicks have built themselves to matchup against the Celtics, but are still the inferior, less deep, version. The Celtics have better players across the board, and have dominated the Knicks mentally. It’s hard to believe that a Knicks team that has struggled against the Celtics historically, and this entire year, will be able to do anything against them in the playoffs. While Brunson has been special this postseason, it’s hard to any clear advantages they have over the Celtics. The Celtics have the best player, the better secondary star, the better 1-5, the better sixth man, the better bench, the better coach, and have home court advantage. I believe the Celtics are going to annihilate the Knicks. With that being said, the Celtics high volume of 3s leaves them susceptible to bad shooting nights. Celtics in a wildly uncompetitive 5, where they dominate in 4/5 games.