So… I have been horrendous with my picks this NBA post-season.
To recap: I picked the Thunder in 6, the Warriors in 6, the Cavs in 5, and Celtics in 5. I only predicted one series winner correct, and missed on all game scores. In fairness to myself, the Warriors lost Curry to injury after cruising to a game 1 victory, and the Cavs were missing key parts of their starting lineup throughout, however it remains that I have been horrendous with my picks. However, I will stay true to my process. To my bones, I still believe that the Celtics are a better team than the Knicks, as evidenced by their 20 point leads in 4 out of 5 games. There is a part of me that refuses to believe the Knicks won, as opposed to the Celtics choking. Onto the last few predictions…
#1 Thunder vs. #6 Timberwolves
This one is easy. The Wolves struggled with the Warriors when they were fully healthy, and looked poor in all their games against the Warriors. Their last good game was against the Lakers in game 4. The Thunder, while potentially tired from a 7-game war against the Nuggets, just knocked off the best player in the world and have proved they belong. The Thunder are also young, so there is substantially less concern about fatigue. Overall, the Thunder are better on defense, better on offense, have the better player in the series, and have the better starting five. While Julius Randle on Chet may be a physical miss-match, its hard to see the Thunder losing this series at all. They will be able to throw tons of great defenders at Ant, and the Wolves are not deep enough to match the Thunder’s long list of versatile wing defenders. Thunder in 6.
#3 Knicks vs #4 Pacers
This series is more of a toss-up. The Knicks just knocked off my favorites to win the title, but the Knicks also did it by hoisting massive comebacks in all 4 of their wins. Pacers have a similar story. They became only the second team to ever come back from down 7 with 1 minute to go in the postseason when they shocked the Bucs in game 5. Then they did it again to the Cavs in game 1. In all of NBA history prior to 2025, this had only happened once. Then the 2025 Pacers came and did it twice in one week. So both these teams have reached the conference finals through a bevy of miracles. Another added layer of intrigue is experience. While the Knicks “feel” more experienced and battle tested, its actually Indiana that has gone further as a team. This whole roster was in the eastern conference finals last year as well, and reached the ECF by knocking off the Knicks in 7. Since then, the Pacers have only improved, hoisting the second best record since January. I’m very split on this series, but I believe that the Knicks style of play and over-reliance on their starters will bite them. Theres a reason Tom Thibs led teams never make deep playoff runs, and a big part of that is the mental and physical fatigue that high minutes puts on older players. With the Pacers beig able to get out in the fast break and for lack of a better word, play with pace, I expect the Pacers to wear the Knicks out in a prolonged series. Pacers in 6.